消费往往是中国经济波动研究中最容易被忽视的变量,但今年上半年消费对经济增长的高贡献率使各界开始关注消费,甚至将其作为新周期开启的证据。我们发现,消费的高贡献率并不必然意味着消费内生动力的增强,而更多的是一种“被动”式的变化,即表明投资增速相对消费增速下降得更快。历史数据也表明,我国经济增速趋缓时消费贡献率往往较高。对比日本的经验来看,潜在经济增速以及可支配收入增速的变化将主导我国消费增速的长期下行趋势,但短期消费增速将保持相对稳定。随着人口老龄化加快,消费占GDP的比重将持续上升,消费的内部结构正由商品向服务消费快速转型。这意味着,消费可以支撑的可能不是增长提速的新周期,而是结构优化的新周期。因此,关注与消费有关的结构性变化,或许比关注消费本身的增速更为重要。 Consumption is often the most easily overlooked variable in the study of China’s economic volatility. However, the high contribution of consumption to economic growth in the first half of this year has caused all sectors of society to start to pay attention to consumption and even use it as evidence for opening a new cycle. We find that the high contribution rate of consumption does not necessarily mean the increase of endogenous dynamics of consumption but more of a “passive” change, which means that the relative growth rate of investment growth declines more rapidly. Historical data also shows that the contribution rate of consumption tends to be higher in our country when the economic growth slows down. Comparing with Japan’s experience, the potential economic growth and changes in disposable income growth will dominate the long-term downward trend of China’s consumption growth, but the growth rate of short-term consumption will remain relatively stable. With population aging accelerating, the share of consumption in GDP will continue to rise, and the internal structure of consumption is rapidly transforming from goods to service consumption. This means that consumption may not support the new cycle of growth and speed up, but the new cycle of structural optimization. Therefore, focusing on the structural changes associated with consumption may be more important than focusing on the growth of consumption itself.