论文部分内容阅读
2010年伊始,终于传来股指期货获得国务院原则通过的消息,期待已久的股指期货即将进入中国投资者的视野和生活中,它是中国资本市场创新的重要里程碑,标志着中国资本市场自此走向多层次,变革将由此展开。
5年磨一剑
从2004年开始酝酿到如今修成正果,股指期货的推出走过了5个多年头。期间,几次声起又几次声落。
2004年,上证所开始着手开发股指期货。2006年,中国金融期货交易所股份有限公司公布了“沪深300指数期货暂定合约”,为股指期货做了技术准备,股指期货会员结算体系以及股指期货技术系统陆续就绪。
2007年是重要的一年,管理层推出股指期货的步伐明显加快。
当时的气氛给投资者的感觉,股指期货呼之欲出,很多证券期货公司纷纷举办股指期货培训班和讲习班。但是,由于当时中国资本市场正在全面实施股权全流通改革,其过程异常艰巨,从监管部门到市场各方参与者都投身其中,股指期货被无声地拖后了。
此后全球金融危机爆发,中国股市处在剧烈的动荡中,此时推出风险更大,更不易把握的股指期货显然不合时宜。
2009年,创业板创立。特别是市场迎来了全流通的时代,市场规模得到了发展,有了一个比较成熟的有足够大规模的蓝筹股市场,股指期货的推出已是势所必然,水到渠成。
涨跌都能赚钱
相对于以前的产品,股指期货是一种全新的概念,从名字就可看出,这是一个身跨两个市场的产品,既离不开股市,又具有期货的特点,它的推出将深刻改变中国资本市场的面貌格局。
股指期货的推出将在真正意义上开启一个金融产品创新的时代,缓解产品同质化所可能带来的市场共振和系统性风险。市场变得相对温和平稳,过去现货市场每有并购和重组消息,必然引起一轮大的投机波动,引入股指期货将有效平抑这类风险。因为,单向交易容易导致过度投机,而股指期货的出现,任何时间段都出现了多空两种力量真正的对垒、制衡,它在一定程度上可以稳定市场,以前单向交易的时候,很容易导致过度投机,在一个时间段,大家都是多头,利好政策一出台,大家都拼命做多,拼命往高拉,拉的越高赚钱越多,机构越好出货。另一个时间段,大家都是空头,利空政策出台了,大家都拼命抛单,你也抛,他也抛,容易造成暴涨暴跌。
在金融危机中可以看到,股指期货作为重要的资产配置工具,非常有利于投资者迅速、灵活地调整和优化其资产结构,是构建具有规避系统性风险特征金融产品的基础。在这样的市场里面,投资者赚钱会有更多的机会。通过卖出一定量的股指期货合约,可以有效改变组合资产的风险收益特征,促进基金等投资产品的多样化,满足不同类型的投资需求。
作为双向交易的重要手段,股指期货能够发挥大盘蓝筹股价值的正向作用。股指期货将使更多资金聚集到大盘蓝筹股周围,以沪深300为代表的大盘蓝筹绩优股将突出。过去20年来,股民习惯炒题材股,股票市场要讲故事,这种情况,恐怕将会被大盘蓝筹股所取代。作为股指期货重要标的的大蓝筹股,将对市场起到中流砥柱的作用。
谨慎对待小心参与
从国外资本市场来看,股指期货和股市的发展是同步的,而中国是在股市发展了16年之后才推出,这在历史上是没有先例的。
总的说来,股指期货推出肯定对大盘有正面作用,但不会改变市场原来的运行趋向。而股市从单边运行改为双向运行,长周期的波动会降低,但短周期的波动会增加。正因为股指期货对股指有助涨助跌作用,某些权重股股价的波动也直接影响到股指乃至股指期货的波动,所以对股市投资者来说,即使是只买卖股票而不参与股指期货交易,也应对股指期货有所了解,否则赔了钱也不知道是怎么赔的。
在期货市场的确有很多散户变成大户,但是这样的人毕竟是少数。新的政策推出后,市场将会有个寻求均衡的过程,开始的时候市场的波动会超出人们的预期,但会逐渐趋于平缓。广大散户,特别是在股票市场里市值在几十万以下的投资者,要学会看股指期货的价值波动,以及形成延期价格的预期,思量自己手中的现货股票应该怎么做,最好是多看少动。除非是有非常好的对价值的预期,有期货的操作经验,能管得住自己,风险控制也不错,否则就不要轻易参与股指期货的买卖,特别是在股票市场里基本上做得不错,就更不要参与股指期货的炒作。
Stock-index futures will open a new era for innovation of financial products in real sense, and will reduce the possibility of market resonance and systematic risk resulted from product homogeneity, therefore the market will become more mild and steady. In the past, news of merger or restructuring in cash markets would necessarily arouse a new round of speculation fluctuation, whereas this kind of risks can be effectively leveled if stock-index futures is introduced into market. This is because one-way trade will easily lead to excessive speculation, while stock-index futures can result in genuine contravallation and counterbalance of two powers including “buy up and bear off’ in any period of time that can stabilize the market in a certain degree. One-way trade can easily lead to excessive speculation. In a certain period of time, everyone is buying up, especially when bullish policy is promulgated, and the more people are buying up, the higher the price is raised, the more profits they get and the more easily the institutions sell. On the other hand, in some other period of time, everyone is bearing off, and when bad policy is promulgated, they are selling off, which can easily result in rise and slump suddenly and steeply.
It can be discovered from the financial crisis that, as an important tool of asset allocation, stock-index futures is very beneficial for the investors to rapidly and neatly regulate and optimize the asset structure and it is the basis for manufacturing the financial products characterized by avoiding systematic risks. In this kind of market, investors will have more opportunities to earn money. By selling a certain amount of stock-index futures contracts, they can efficiently change the risk-return feature of the portfolio and boost investment products such as funds towards diversification to satisfy investment needs of different types.
As an important tool for two-way trade, stock-index futures is able to play a positive role as big board blue chips. It will attract more capital to the big board blue chips, which, represented by Hushen 300 Index, will perform excellently. For the past 20 years, the stock holders have been used to buy subject shares and story-telling in stock market. Nevertheless, this will be replaced by the big board blue chips which will play a pivotal role in market as the important subject matter of the stock-index futures.
5年磨一剑
从2004年开始酝酿到如今修成正果,股指期货的推出走过了5个多年头。期间,几次声起又几次声落。
2004年,上证所开始着手开发股指期货。2006年,中国金融期货交易所股份有限公司公布了“沪深300指数期货暂定合约”,为股指期货做了技术准备,股指期货会员结算体系以及股指期货技术系统陆续就绪。
2007年是重要的一年,管理层推出股指期货的步伐明显加快。
当时的气氛给投资者的感觉,股指期货呼之欲出,很多证券期货公司纷纷举办股指期货培训班和讲习班。但是,由于当时中国资本市场正在全面实施股权全流通改革,其过程异常艰巨,从监管部门到市场各方参与者都投身其中,股指期货被无声地拖后了。
此后全球金融危机爆发,中国股市处在剧烈的动荡中,此时推出风险更大,更不易把握的股指期货显然不合时宜。
2009年,创业板创立。特别是市场迎来了全流通的时代,市场规模得到了发展,有了一个比较成熟的有足够大规模的蓝筹股市场,股指期货的推出已是势所必然,水到渠成。
涨跌都能赚钱
相对于以前的产品,股指期货是一种全新的概念,从名字就可看出,这是一个身跨两个市场的产品,既离不开股市,又具有期货的特点,它的推出将深刻改变中国资本市场的面貌格局。
股指期货的推出将在真正意义上开启一个金融产品创新的时代,缓解产品同质化所可能带来的市场共振和系统性风险。市场变得相对温和平稳,过去现货市场每有并购和重组消息,必然引起一轮大的投机波动,引入股指期货将有效平抑这类风险。因为,单向交易容易导致过度投机,而股指期货的出现,任何时间段都出现了多空两种力量真正的对垒、制衡,它在一定程度上可以稳定市场,以前单向交易的时候,很容易导致过度投机,在一个时间段,大家都是多头,利好政策一出台,大家都拼命做多,拼命往高拉,拉的越高赚钱越多,机构越好出货。另一个时间段,大家都是空头,利空政策出台了,大家都拼命抛单,你也抛,他也抛,容易造成暴涨暴跌。
在金融危机中可以看到,股指期货作为重要的资产配置工具,非常有利于投资者迅速、灵活地调整和优化其资产结构,是构建具有规避系统性风险特征金融产品的基础。在这样的市场里面,投资者赚钱会有更多的机会。通过卖出一定量的股指期货合约,可以有效改变组合资产的风险收益特征,促进基金等投资产品的多样化,满足不同类型的投资需求。
作为双向交易的重要手段,股指期货能够发挥大盘蓝筹股价值的正向作用。股指期货将使更多资金聚集到大盘蓝筹股周围,以沪深300为代表的大盘蓝筹绩优股将突出。过去20年来,股民习惯炒题材股,股票市场要讲故事,这种情况,恐怕将会被大盘蓝筹股所取代。作为股指期货重要标的的大蓝筹股,将对市场起到中流砥柱的作用。
谨慎对待小心参与
从国外资本市场来看,股指期货和股市的发展是同步的,而中国是在股市发展了16年之后才推出,这在历史上是没有先例的。
总的说来,股指期货推出肯定对大盘有正面作用,但不会改变市场原来的运行趋向。而股市从单边运行改为双向运行,长周期的波动会降低,但短周期的波动会增加。正因为股指期货对股指有助涨助跌作用,某些权重股股价的波动也直接影响到股指乃至股指期货的波动,所以对股市投资者来说,即使是只买卖股票而不参与股指期货交易,也应对股指期货有所了解,否则赔了钱也不知道是怎么赔的。
在期货市场的确有很多散户变成大户,但是这样的人毕竟是少数。新的政策推出后,市场将会有个寻求均衡的过程,开始的时候市场的波动会超出人们的预期,但会逐渐趋于平缓。广大散户,特别是在股票市场里市值在几十万以下的投资者,要学会看股指期货的价值波动,以及形成延期价格的预期,思量自己手中的现货股票应该怎么做,最好是多看少动。除非是有非常好的对价值的预期,有期货的操作经验,能管得住自己,风险控制也不错,否则就不要轻易参与股指期货的买卖,特别是在股票市场里基本上做得不错,就更不要参与股指期货的炒作。
Stock-index futures will open a new era for innovation of financial products in real sense, and will reduce the possibility of market resonance and systematic risk resulted from product homogeneity, therefore the market will become more mild and steady. In the past, news of merger or restructuring in cash markets would necessarily arouse a new round of speculation fluctuation, whereas this kind of risks can be effectively leveled if stock-index futures is introduced into market. This is because one-way trade will easily lead to excessive speculation, while stock-index futures can result in genuine contravallation and counterbalance of two powers including “buy up and bear off’ in any period of time that can stabilize the market in a certain degree. One-way trade can easily lead to excessive speculation. In a certain period of time, everyone is buying up, especially when bullish policy is promulgated, and the more people are buying up, the higher the price is raised, the more profits they get and the more easily the institutions sell. On the other hand, in some other period of time, everyone is bearing off, and when bad policy is promulgated, they are selling off, which can easily result in rise and slump suddenly and steeply.
It can be discovered from the financial crisis that, as an important tool of asset allocation, stock-index futures is very beneficial for the investors to rapidly and neatly regulate and optimize the asset structure and it is the basis for manufacturing the financial products characterized by avoiding systematic risks. In this kind of market, investors will have more opportunities to earn money. By selling a certain amount of stock-index futures contracts, they can efficiently change the risk-return feature of the portfolio and boost investment products such as funds towards diversification to satisfy investment needs of different types.
As an important tool for two-way trade, stock-index futures is able to play a positive role as big board blue chips. It will attract more capital to the big board blue chips, which, represented by Hushen 300 Index, will perform excellently. For the past 20 years, the stock holders have been used to buy subject shares and story-telling in stock market. Nevertheless, this will be replaced by the big board blue chips which will play a pivotal role in market as the important subject matter of the stock-index futures.