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东亚新兴经济体经济周期的波动性有不断减弱的趋势,但在一些突发事件如东南亚金融危机等事件的影响下,经济波动可能会加剧。东亚经济周期波动是非对称的,且大多数国家(地区)的非对称性都表现为经济周期波动的上升阶段长于下降阶段。进入20世纪90年代,尤其是2000年后,东亚新兴经济体的经济周期波动呈现了较强的相关性和同步性,2001年以后,东亚新兴经济体与世界经济周期波动之间也呈现出较强的同步性。
The volatility of the economic cycle in emerging East Asian economies has been declining. However, economic fluctuations may intensify under the influence of some unexpected events such as the Southeast Asian financial crisis. The fluctuation in the economic cycle of East Asia is asymmetric, and the asymmetry in most countries and regions shows that the period of the rise of the economic cycle is longer than the decline. Since the 1990s, especially after 2000, the economic cycle of emerging economies in East Asia has shown a strong correlation and synchronization. After 2001, the economic cycle between East Asia emerging economies and the world economy has also shown more Strong synchronization.