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本文通过对文献老化“半衰期”概念和描述老化规律的负指数曲线C(t)=Ke~(-al)的分析,认为“半衰期”的概念及数学模型不能完整地揭示文献老化的规律,并具体说明了其不完整性和不严密之处,同时又根据从《JCR》中统计得出的自然科学5万余个引文时间分布数据的分析,利用非线性最小二乘法给出了能完整描述文献老化全过程的新模型,可为自然科学各有关的文献情报单位提供馆藏文献收藏期限的可靠依据,达到妥善解决文献激增与存放空间有限这一具体矛盾的目的。
Through the analysis of the concept of “half-life” and the negative exponential curve C (t) = Ke ~ (-al) which describes the aging law, this paper argues that the concept of half-life and the mathematical model can not fully reveal the law of aging of literature It also gives a detailed description of its incompleteness and impreciseness. At the same time, based on the analysis of the time distribution data of more than 50,000 citations from the “JCR” statistics, the nonlinear least squares method is used to give a complete description The new model of the whole process of the aging of the literature can provide a reliable basis for the relevant literature and information units of the natural sciences to collect the collection period of the collection documents so as to properly solve the specific contradiction between the upsurge of the literature and the limited storage space.