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2013年7月10日华溪沟引发降雨量为100年一遇的溃决型泥石流(“7.10”泥石流),造成岷江堵塞并形成堰塞湖,造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡。为了研究溃决型泥石流危险性,探讨不同降雨频率下暴发泥石流的结果,利用FLO-2D软件对华溪沟在不同降雨频率下溃决与非溃决条件进行了数值模拟,并把100年一遇的模拟结果与实际野外调查情况做出对比。结果显示溃决条件下冲出量、堆积范围面积、平均堆积深度比非溃决条件下超出1倍;溃决时冲出量比实际调查值少5.58万m3。数值模拟结果表明模型的误差在允许范围内,模拟结果与原型相比准确度为88.61%,模拟效果较好。溃决型泥石流规模比非溃决时相比甚大,因此在进行灾害防治设计和危险性评价时应特别注意。
On July 10, 2013, Huaxigou triggered a collapse-type debris flow ( “7.10 ” debris flow) with a rainfall of 100 years, causing the Minjiang River to plug and form a dammed lake, causing huge economic losses and casualties. In order to study the danger of collapsing debris flow and explore the results of debris flow with different rainfall frequency, FLO-2D software was used to simulate the failure and non-collapse conditions of Huaxiou at different rainfall frequencies. The simulation of once-in-a- The results are compared with the actual field survey. The results show that the amount of outburst, accumulation area and average depth of deposit under the conditions of collapse are more than twice as high as those under non-rupture conditions. The amount of outburst at the time of the collapse is 55,800 m3 less than the actual survey value. The numerical simulation results show that the error of the model is within the allowable range, the accuracy of the simulation result is 88.61% compared with the prototype, and the simulation result is good. The magnitude of the collapse debris flow is much larger than when it was not. Therefore, special attention should be paid to disaster prevention and control design and risk assessment.