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针对交通安全系统的多因素、多层次相互作用的模糊性和随机性,结合了时间序列和模糊理论的优点,构建了模糊时间序列预测模型。利用模糊时间序列预测模型,根据交通部门和公安部门等相关部门提供的区域交通安全度,对后续时期的交通安全度进行了倾向性预测。并对预测结果进行了检验,验证了模型的实用性,为相关部门预测区域交通安全状态及制定相关的交通安全预防措施提供了参考依据。
Aiming at the fuzziness and randomness of multi-factor and multi-level interaction of traffic safety system, the fuzzy time series prediction model is constructed by combining the advantages of time series and fuzzy theory. Using fuzzy time series forecasting model, according to the regional traffic safety provided by the relevant departments such as the transportation department and the public security department, the traffic safety degree in the following period is propensityly predicted. The test results are tested to verify the practicability of the model and provide a reference for the relevant departments to predict the status of regional traffic safety and formulate relevant traffic safety precautions.