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目前核电站概率安全评价(PSA)中的人员可靠性分析(HRA)着重于个人行为特征,没有充分涵盖班组特点。该文以Sasou和Reason提出的班组失误分类方法为理论基础,分析人误概率预测技术(THERP)中班组因素构模方法。结论如下:THERP方法在诊断模型等方面已考虑了班组因素,但在模化班组导致的正/负相关性问题、相关性影响传递范围、相关性程度量化关系式等存在不足。保持THERP总体框架不变,引入故障树等方法对诱误因素进行处理,以及利用计算机模拟技术建立班组失误模型对相应环节的人误概率进行修正等,可提高THERP对班组失误的构模能力。
At present, the reliability analysis (HRA) in the probability and safety assessment of nuclear power plants (PSA) focuses on individual behavioral characteristics and does not fully cover the characteristics of the team. In this paper, based on the class error classification method proposed by Sasou and Reason, this paper analyzes the method of modeling team formation factors in human error probability prediction (THERP). The conclusions are as follows: The THERP method has considered the team factors in the diagnostic model and other aspects, but there are some shortcomings in the positive and negative correlation problems caused by the modular team, the scope of the relativistic impact transmission and the quantitative relation of the correlation degree. Maintaining the overall framework of THERP, introducing fault tree and other methods to deal with the error factors, and using computer simulation technology to establish team error model to correct the error probability of the corresponding links, etc., can improve THERP on team formation error ability.