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通过对1991～2008年阿勒泰地区西部三县蝗虫发生面积与大气环流指数74项特征值的相关分析,分别筛选出与各县蝗虫发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归方法分别建立各县蝗虫发生面积的预测模型,并对模型进行了检验。利用模型对2009～2010年各县蝗虫发生面积进行延伸预测,并初步分析了大气环流特征量与蝗虫发生面积的关系。研究结果可为蝗灾的预测预报提供理论依据。
By analyzing the correlation between the occurrence area of the locusts and the 74 index values of the atmospheric circulation index in the three counties of Altay Prefecture from 1991 to 2008, the atmospheric circulation factors that were significantly related to the occurrence area of locusts in each county were screened. The stepwise regression method was used to establish the counties Locust occurrence area prediction model, and the model was tested. The model was used to forecast the area of locust occurrence in each county from 2009 to 2010, and the relationship between the characteristics of atmospheric circulation and the area of locust occurrence was primarily analyzed. The results can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of locust plagues.