论文部分内容阅读
2016年四季度铅价反弹一度超过50%,并超过2016年明星品种锌的走势。2017年开局,伦铅以16%的累积涨幅再度超过锌。基金净多持仓及库存转移等不断发生,市场对铅的关注开始不断增加,并且部分机构开始认为2017年将轮到铅当明星。笔者从基本面上分析布局铅是否支持大幅上涨。铅矿短缺持续但缺口收窄从全球铅矿供需来看,2016年铅矿出现最近7年来最好基本面,连续第二年出现短缺,并且预期2017年铅矿供需难得到扭转,仍将维持短缺,但缺口将从2016年的40万吨左右收窄至28万吨。全球铅矿产量连续第三年下滑。铅
In the fourth quarter of 2016, the price of lead rebounded for more than 50% and surpassed the trend of the star of 2016. In 2017, lead and lead surpassed zinc again with a cumulative gain of 16%. Fund net long positions and stock transfers continue to occur, the market concerns about lead began to increase, and some agencies began to think that 2017 will turn lead star. The author from the fundamental analysis of the layout of lead support rose sharply. Lack of lead mining shortage but narrowing of gap In view of the demand and supply of lead ore in the world, the lead fundamentals of lead ore emerged in 2016 for the second consecutive year with the best fundamentals in the past seven years. It is also expected that supply and demand of lead ore will hardly be reversed in 2017 and will remain Shortage, but the gap will narrow from about 400,000 tons in 2016 to 280,000 tons. Global lead ore production fell for the third year in a row. lead