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能源价格的快速上涨和大幅波动对中国宏观经济的影响日益凸显。本文基于1997年1月至2014年3月的统计数据,采用VEC模型探讨了能源价格波动的传导机制以及对我国宏观经济的影响。研究结果表明,国内能源价格波动并不直接对物价及总产出水平产生影响,而是通过PPI的中间传导来引起CPI和GDP的变动;能源价格上涨1%所形成的冲击最大可使得半年后的PPI以及CPI分别上升0.41和0.27个百分点,使得一年半后的GDP下降0.16个百分点。
The rapid rise and sharp fluctuations in energy prices have increasingly highlighted the impact on China’s macroeconomy. Based on the statistics from January 1997 to March 2014, this paper uses VEC model to discuss the transmission mechanism of energy price volatility and its impact on China’s macro-economy. The results show that the fluctuation of domestic energy prices does not directly affect the price level and total output level, but leads to the changes of CPI and GDP through the intermediary of PPI. The impact of rising energy prices by 1% can maximize the impact of energy prices by half a year PPI and CPI rose by 0.41 and 0.27 percentage points, respectively, making GDP a year and a half down by 0.16 percentage point.