突变点的存在对经济分析与建模会产生重要影响.“邹检验”仅仅在序列存在一个突变点时有效.为了对序列中可能存在的多个突变点进行判断,引入了基于贝叶斯推断的多个突变点判断理论,并将该理论应用于我国GDP序列中.笔者检测出该序列存在三个突变点,分别位于1961年,1976年,1989年.此外,发现加入合理的突变点后,模型的预测精度得到显著的提高. The existence of mutation point will have a significant impact on economic analysis and modeling. “Zou test ” is valid only when there is a mutation point in the sequence. In order to judge multiple mutation points that may exist in the sequence, I deduced a number of mutation point judgment theory, and the theory applied to China’s GDP sequence.I detected three mutations in the sequence, respectively, located in 1961, 1976, 1989. In addition, found that the addition of a reasonable mutation After the point, the prediction accuracy of the model has been significantly improved.