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一个科学假说的确立受到两方面的支持,即经验支持和理论支持。在检验假说的过程中既会出现经验和理论同时支持的情况,也会出现二者作用相反的情况。库恩范式理论和贝叶斯方法可用于说明这两种支持之间的张力关系。根据范式理论,在常规科学时期,理论支持对于假说的确立起着决定性的作用;在科学革命时期,经验支持对于假说的确立起着决定性的作用。贝叶斯方法则通过假说的验前概率和验后概率提供了一种将经验支持和理论支持综合起来的检验模式。
The establishment of a scientific hypothesis is supported by two aspects, namely, empirical support and theoretical support. In the process of testing the hypothesis, both the experience and the theory support both the situation and the role of the opposite. Kuhn’s paradigm theory and the Bayesian approach can be used to illustrate the tension between these two kinds of support. According to the paradigm theory, theoretical support plays a decisive role in establishing the hypothesis in the normal scientific period. During the scientific revolution, empirical support played a decisive role in establishing the hypothesis. The Bayesian approach provides a test model that combines empirical support and theoretical support through the pre-test and post-test probabilities of the hypothesis.