论文部分内容阅读
低利率、低价格的要素价格体系是我国资源型重工业城市中劳动力、土地、资本密集增长的主要原因,其结果是高投入、高能耗、高污染的不可持续的经济增长。本文基于改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型,采用资源型重工业城市唐山1994-2015年的时间序列数据,应用协整理论、格兰杰因果检验对唐山市经济增长方式进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,粗放的固定资产投资仍然是经济增长的主要动力,科技投入长期弹性较大但短期产出弹性较小,就业人数对经济增长有显著的负向作用,这说明当前资源型重工业城市经济增长内生动力尚且不足。建议资源型重工业城市转型升级的路径选择要从构建并完善创新体系、深化供给侧结构改革、加大人力资本投入、产业升级转型与生态环境转型并重等方面着力。
The low price and low price factor price system is the main reason for the intensive growth of labor, land and capital in China’s resource-based heavy industrial cities. The result is unsustainable economic growth with high input, high energy consumption and high pollution. Based on the improved Cobb-Douglas production function model, this paper uses the time-series data of Tangshan, a resource-heavy industrial city from 1994 to 2015, and conducts an empirical study on the economic growth pattern of Tangshan by cointegration theory and Granger causality test. The results show that the extensive investment in fixed assets is still the main driving force of economic growth. However, the long-term investment in science and technology has greater long-term flexibility but less elasticity in short-term output, and the employment volume has a significant negative effect on economic growth. This shows that the current resource-based heavy industrial cities Endogenous growth of economic growth is still not enough. It is suggested that the path choice for the transformation and upgrading of resource-based heavy industrial cities should be focused on constructing and perfecting the innovation system, deepening the supply-side structural reform, increasing human capital investment, upgrading and restructuring of industries and ecological environment transformation.