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油菜生产与气候变化息息相关。利用1985-2011年我国油菜主产区12个省的油菜生产及气象面板数据实证分析了生长期气候变化对我国油菜单产的影响。研究表明:(1)1985-2011年间我国油菜主产区气候变化呈现气温升高、降水量略微减少的暖干化趋势。(2)生长期气候变化对我国油菜单产有显著的影响,在其他条件不变的情况下,生长期平均温度每升高1℃将导致油菜单产减少0.74%-2.92%,平均降水量每减少10mm将导致油菜单产增加1.64%-13.61%。
Rape production and climate change are closely related. Using rapeseed production and weather panel data from 12 provinces in main producing areas of rapeseed from 1985 to 2011 in China, we analyzed the effects of climate change in growing season on the yield of rapeseed in China. The results show that: (1) The climate change in the main producing areas of rapeseed during 1985-2011 shows the trend of warming and drying with a slight decrease of precipitation. (2) During the growing season, the climate change has a significant impact on the yield of oilseed rapeseed in China. When the other conditions remain unchanged, every 1 ℃ rise in the average growing temperature will reduce the yield of oilseed rape by 0.74% -2.92% and decrease with the decrease of average precipitation 10mm will lead to an increase of 1.64% -13.61% yield of rapeseed.