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对阿尔金断层的地震活动、古地震、区域构造应力场、物理模拟和数学模拟的研究发现,不同段落活动状况有较大差异。据现今地震活动特点及古地震复发间隔时间估计,最近这条断层不会发生7级以上地震,但是在未来50年内有发生1—4次6级左右地震的危险。
Seismic activities, paleoearthquakes, regional tectonic stress fields, physical and mathematical simulations of the Altyn Tagh fault found that the activities of the different sections are quite different. According to the characteristics of today’s seismic activity and the recurrence interval of ancient earthquakes, it is estimated that no more than M7 earthquakes will occur in this fault recently, but there is a risk that earthquakes of M6 to M6 will occur within the next 50 years.