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目的对死亡率变化的影响因素进行定量分解,了解影响死亡率变化的因素,为制定防病规划提供参考依据。方法采用Access数据库管理死因数据并计算相关死亡指标,采用死亡率差别分解法计算死亡率变化中人口因素和非人口因素的贡献值和贡献率。用SPSS 18.0进行统计分析。结果 2003-2013年居民死亡率呈现上升趋势,经2000年中国普查人口标化后,标化死亡率呈下降趋势。恶性肿瘤、心脏病的死亡率较高,二者死亡率随时间变化曲线有交叉,与其死因顺位变化相一致。2013年与2003年相比,人口结构发生较大变化,人口因素对死亡率上升的贡献相对较高,而非人口因素发挥着很好的负向作用,共同影响死亡率的变化,人口因素是朝阳区居民前5位死因死亡率上升的主要原因。结论对不同年代主要死因死亡水平及其变化的比较可分析人群健康状况的变化规律及影响因素,为确定或调整卫生工作重点,制定疾病控制策略提供科学依据。
Objective To quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the change of mortality, to understand the factors that affect the change of mortality, and to provide reference for formulating disease prevention plan. Methods Access database was used to manage the cause of death data and calculate the related death index. The difference of death rate was used to calculate the contribution and contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors in mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 18.0. Results The mortality rate of residents showed an upward trend from 2003 to 2013. After the population census of China in 2000, the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend. Malignant tumors, heart disease mortality is higher, the mortality rate over time curve with the cross, consistent with the changes in the order of their cause of death. Compared with 2003, the population structure underwent major changes in 2013 and the contribution of population factors to the increase in mortality rate was relatively high. Non-population factors played a very good negative role in jointly influencing the changes in mortality rates. The population factor was Chaoyang District, the top five causes of death increased the main cause of death. Conclusions The comparison of the death level and its changes of the main causes of death in different ages can analyze the changing rules and influencing factors of the health status of the population and provide a scientific basis for determining or adjusting the key points of the health work and formulating the disease control strategies.