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在全球化生产共享的背景下,中间品贸易飞速增长并成为国际贸易的主体,以最终产品为基础的传统实际有效汇率测算方法严重脱离了这一现实。该文以全球价值链为视角,利用总贸易核算方法对中国国家层面和制造业细分层面的实际有效汇率进行了测算,结论表明1995-2011年间国家层面和行业层面的实际有效汇率变化轨迹存在一定程度的相似性,基本呈现出先下降后上升的态势。但不同行业实际有效汇率在具体变化幅度与变化方向上却存在显著的异质性,国家层面的实际有效汇率无法反映这种差别。
In the context of globalized production sharing, the trade in intermediate goods has grown rapidly and has become the main body of international trade. The traditional real effective exchange rate measurement based on the final product has seriously deviated from this reality. From the perspective of global value chain, this paper uses the total trade accounting method to measure the real effective exchange rate at the national level and the manufacturing level in China. The conclusion shows that there exists a real exchange rate trajectory between the national level and the industrial level in 1995-2011 A certain degree of similarity basically shows the trend of first rising and then decreasing. However, the actual effective exchange rate in different industries shows significant heterogeneity in the direction and direction of the specific changes. The actual effective exchange rate at the national level can not reflect this difference.