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时间序列分析是随机水文分析中常用的一种数据分析方法.该方法通过频谱分析,揭示水文时间序列的周期性变化规律.阐述了频谱分析的基本概念和理论,并将其应用于丹江口水库入库径流的周期分析中,针对丹江口水库1930-2005年的实测年径流资料,利用波谱分析方法提取水文时间序列的潜周期,并采用χ2分布进行周期性检验.计算结果表明,丹江口水库年径流量存在22 a及8 a变化的准周期,它对揭示丹江口水库上游水文周期的变化规律具有一定的探讨意义,为南水北调中线工程的水资源调度提供参考依据.
Time series analysis is a commonly used data analysis method in stochastic hydrological analysis, which reveals the periodic variation of hydrological time series through spectrum analysis. The basic concepts and theories of spectrum analysis are expounded and applied to the analysis of In the cycle analysis of reservoir runoff, the potential annual runoff data of Danjiangkou reservoir from 1930 to 2005 were extracted, and the latent period of hydrological time series was extracted by spectral analysis, and the periodicity was tested by χ2 distribution.The results show that annual runoff There is a quasi-periodic variation of 22 a and 8 a. It is of great significance in revealing the variation of hydrological cycles in the upper reaches of Danjiangkou Reservoir, and provides a reference for water resources scheduling of the midline of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.