论文部分内容阅读
为保障三峡工程大江截流期施工的顺利进行 ,长江委水文局于 1997年 4月 15日起开展了三峡截流施工期长、中、短期水文气象预报工作。预报处通过对卫星云图、测雨雷达、常规气象资料跟踪监测分析及数值预报产品的分析 ,完成了 12、2 4、48h定量降水预报。三峡截流期间 ,根据中期 3～ 7d定量降水预报 ,完成了三峡坝址未来 5～10d的日平均流量滚动预报。长期水文气象预报主要是通过对天气气候背景、大气及海洋环流特征、天文因素、地球物理因子进行定性分析 ,运用统计方法 ,做出一个月至一年的降雨分布及水情趋势预测。在三峡施工截流过程中 ,长江委水文局发布的长、中、短期水文气象滚动预报 ,使截流施工的指挥者对来水情况、导流情况的变化趋势做到心中有数 ,对于保证截流胜利成功起到了积极作用。
In order to ensure smooth construction of the Three Gorges Dam during the river closure period, the Changjiang Committee Hydrology Bureau started the long, medium and short-term hydro-meteorological forecasting work on the closure of the Three Gorges from April 15, 1997. The forecast department completed the quantitative precipitation forecast of 12,2,448 hours by analyzing the satellite imagery, the rain radar, the conventional meteorological data tracking and monitoring analysis and the numerical forecast products. During the closure of the Three Gorges, according to the quantitative precipitation forecast from 3 to 7 days in the medium term, the daily average rolling flow forecast of the Three Gorges Dam site for the next 5-10 days was completed. The long-term hydrological and meteorological forecast is mainly made through the qualitative analysis of the weather and climate background, the atmospheric and ocean circulation characteristics, astronomical factors and geophysical factors, and the statistical methods are used to make monthly rainfall distribution and forecast of the water regime trend. During the closure of the Three Gorges Project, hydrological and meteorological rolling forecasts of long, medium and short-term released by Hydrology Bureau of Yangtze River Commission made the commanders of river closure construction aware of the trend of incoming water and diversion conditions, Played a positive role.