近年来,技术革命使页岩油成为了影响国际原油市场的重要因素,其迅速发展越来越深刻地影响着国际能源格局。随着更深层次的技术进步,页岩油或将进一步降低成本,扩大产量,使其在国际原油市场中更具有竞争力。未来页岩油产量仍将会受到诸多不确定性因素的影响。在油价高涨时页岩油生产商将会迅速增产,成为压制国际石油价格增长的“天花板”。预计2017年年内,WTI原油价格将维持在45~55美元/桶区间运行;2018年,原油 In recent years, the technological revolution has made shale oil an important factor affecting the international crude oil market. Its rapid development has more and more profoundly affected the international energy pattern. With further technological advances, shale oil or will further reduce costs, expand production, making it more competitive in the international crude oil market. Future shale oil production will still be subject to many uncertainties. As oil prices rise, shale oil producers will rapidly increase their output to become “ceilings” that will clamp down on international oil price increases. It is estimated that the WTI crude oil price will be maintained at a range of 45-55 USD / barrel during 2017. In 2018, crude oil