针对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,以陈村大坝为例,根据最小二乘原理提出了以GM(1,1)的一次累加生成建模序列所有分量的拟合误差平方和最小为约束条件,求得新灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的最优初始值,改进了原GM(1,1)模型的背景值及灰度值,并与传统GM(1,1)模型做了比较。数值仿真结果表明,新模型精度较高,预测效果较理想。 Aiming at the defects of the traditional gray GM (1,1) model, taking the Chencun Dam as an example, the square error sum of fitting errors of all the components in the modeling sequence with GM (1,1) The optimal initial value of the new gray GM (1,1) prediction model is obtained, and the background and gray values ​​of the original GM (1,1) model are improved. Compared with the traditional GM (1,1) The model is compared. Numerical simulation results show that the new model has higher accuracy and better prediction effect.