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在不含时间的地震危险性概率分析中,每个震源都被视为在时间和空间上无关。因此,在时间和空间上都依赖主震的前震和余震都不被列入地震目录。然而,事实表明,这些地震能够产生破坏性地震动,应该被认为是构成地震危险性的一部分。本研究将主震及其相关地震作为时间不相关的群体,每个群体在时间和空间上都与其他任何群体无关,且都具有主震的复发时间。通过将震群中的地震视为事件的并,相关事件都会对地震动和危险性有贡献。根据美国地质调查局的高危险性场地判别方法,纳入相关事件使超过工程意义概率水平的地震动增加了约10%,但如果能够可靠地计算余震发生量的变化,这个增加量可能会高达20%。
In time-free probability analysis of seismic hazard, each source is considered to be temporally and spatially independent. Therefore, neither the foreshocks nor aftershocks dependent on the main shock in time and space are included in the earthquake catalog. However, the fact that these earthquakes can produce destructive earthquakes should be considered as part of the seismic risk. In this study, the main shocks and their associated earthquakes are regarded as time-independent groups. Each group is independent of any other groups in time and space, and each time has the main shock’s recurrence time. By treating the earthquakes in a swarm as an event, the related events all contribute to earthquakes and dangers. According to the USGS High Hazardous Land Discrimination Method, inclusion of related events increases earthquakes above the engineering probabilistic level by approximately 10%, but this increase could be as high as 20 if reliable estimates of aftershocks occur %.