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汉江中下游防洪系统是一个由多种防洪措施相结合而组成的复杂系统,包括上游丹江口水库、中游临时分洪区、中下游堤防、东荆河分洪水道及杜家台分洪区。其任务是出现不超过百年一遇洪水时确保汉江中下游平原的防洪安全。本文针对该防洪系统的联合调度建立了一个动态规划模型,其中把水库调洪计算、河道洪水演进及分洪区分洪过程处理为相互衔接的连续过程。在利用该模型进行防洪系统的实时调度中,根据不断更新的洪水预报资料及系统实际蓄水、出流状态,求解模型,得到新预报下的系统运行策略,仅取整个策略中前面若干时段的决策去实施,其余一概舍去;在实施面临几个时段决策的过程中,下一轮次的新洪水预报又已作出,再根据新资料重复上述作法。如此不断更新,便形成一个“预报—决策—实施”的前向卷动决策方法,可以逐步获得调度一场洪水的较优策略。文中还利用汉江流域“83.10”洪水的实际预报过程,检验了这个动态规划模型与前向卷动决策方法的实用性和有效性。
The flood control system in the middle and lower reaches of the Han River is a complex system composed of various flood prevention measures, including the upstream Danjiangkou Reservoir, the temporary flood diversion zone in the middle reaches, the embankment in the middle and lower reaches, the flood diversion channel in Dongjinghe and the flood diversion area in Dujiatai. Its mission is to ensure that floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Han River will be safeguarded against flooding no more than a hundred-year flood. In this paper, a dynamic programming model is established for the joint operation of the flood control system, in which the reservoir flood regulation, flood evolution and flood diversion process are treated as a continuous process. In the real-time scheduling of the flood control system by using the model, the system operation strategy under the new forecast is obtained based on the constantly updated flood forecast data and the actual impoundment, outflow status and solution model of the system. In the course of carrying out the decision-making process for several periods, the next round of new flood forecasting has been made again, and the above-mentioned practice is repeated on the basis of new information. With the continuous updating, a forward-scrolling decision-making method of “forecast-decision-implement” can be formed, which can gradually obtain the better strategy of scheduling a flood. The article also makes use of the actual prediction process of “83.10” flood in the Hanjiang River Basin to test the practicability and effectiveness of this dynamic programming model and the forward scrolling decision-making method.