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北方森林作为气候变化最敏感的陆地生态系统之一。近些年来随着林区气候变暖,林火发生的数量和过火面积都呈显著的增加趋势,因此研究北方森林林火发生驱动因子及其变化趋势对维护其生态系统的稳定具有重要意义。文中主要从北方森林林火发生的主要控制因子和未来气候变暖条件下林火发生的预测方法及变化趋势进行综述。研究结果表明,林火的驱动因子既包括大尺度上气候的作用,也包含植被、地形、可燃物和人类活动等局部尺度的影响。近几年来对气候变暖下林火状况趋势预测更倾向综合考虑气候和局部控制因子的作用。对我国而言,需要在更大的区域尺度上开展林火发生预测的研究。研究认为,北方森林林火变化趋势及预测研究的关键问题在于如何在不同空间尺度上确立林火发生的关键控制因子以及如何完善现有的林火预测方法。
Northern forests are among the most sensitive terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In recent years, with the forest climate warming, the number of forest fires and the over-burning area have shown a significant increase. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the driving factors and their changing trends of forest fires in northern China to maintain the stability of their ecosystems. This paper mainly reviews the main control factors of forest fires in the north and the prediction methods and trends of forest fires under the conditions of future climate warming. The results show that the driving force of forest fire includes both the effects of large-scale climate and local scales such as vegetation, topography, combustibles and human activities. In recent years, the tendency of forest fires under climate warming is more likely to predict the role of climate and local control factors. For our country, we need to carry out the research on the prediction of forest fire occurrence on a larger regional scale. The study suggests that the key issue of forest fire trend and its prediction in northern China lies in how to establish the key control factors of forest fire occurrence on different spatial scales and how to improve the existing forest fire forecasting methods.