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1996年秋,中国航空工业总公司航空系统工程研究所公布了1996～2015年民用飞机中国市场预测年报.该报告由郭忱、王可、刘文胜完成.预测结果包括中长期中国民航运输业发展趋势,中国民用客机、货机机队发展规模,现役飞机退役预测以及民用客机的净需求量.该报告还对国外航空运输市场及民用飞机需求作了定性分析.在此,本刊仅摘选其主要预测结果,供读者参考.
In the autumn of 1996, the Aviation System Engineering Institute of China Aviation Industry Corporation announced the annual forecast of the civil aircraft market in China from 1996 to 2015. The report was completed by Guo Wei, Wang Ke and Liu Wensheng. The forecast results include the development trend of the civil aviation transport industry in the medium and long term. Development scale of China’s civil airliner and cargo aircraft fleet, forecast of active aircraft decommissioning, and net demand for civil airliners. The report also makes a qualitative analysis of the foreign air transport market and civil aircraft demand. Here, we only extract its main forecast. The results for the reader’s reference.