论文部分内容阅读
本文以1971-2005年的世界油价、世界经济增长率及美国等8个世界主要发达国家经济增长率数据为基础,并利用单方根检验、VAR模型和Granger检验分析了石油价格波动与世界经济周期性波动的关系。结果表明,石油危机或剧烈的价格波动初期与世界经济周期性波动有紧密的关联,加深了世界经济波动的幅度,拉长了世界经济波动的周期,但在滞后期对世界经济周期性波动的影响正逐步减弱,并由最初的异向变动转为同向变动。
Based on the data of world oil price, world economic growth rate and the economic growth rate of eight major developed countries, such as the United States, from 1971 to 2005, this paper analyzes the relationship between oil price volatility and world economic cycle by using the single root test, VAR model and Granger test Sexual fluctuations in the relationship. The results show that the early oil shock or violent price fluctuations are closely linked with cyclical fluctuations in the world economy, deepening the volatility of the world economy and lengthening the cycle of world economic fluctuations. However, in a period of cyclical fluctuations in the world economy during the lag phase, The impact is gradually diminishing and has shifted from the original one-way changes to the one-way changes.