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基于国民收入总需求方程的理论研究表明,投资产出效率与消费-投资之比呈倒U型关系,其最优值取决于消费-投资之比与投资增长率的动态均衡。投资增长率是影响投资产出效率变动趋势的关键因素,而消费抑制减弱了投资驱动对经济增长的贡献。1992-2007年中国的省级面板数据研究表明,近五年84%的省区年度消费率低于最优的消费率水平,而且消费率有逐渐下降的趋势。因此,消费与投资的结构优化有助于投资产出效率的提升。
The theoretical study based on the national income total demand equation shows that the ratio of investment output efficiency to consumption-investment ratio is inverted U-shaped, and its optimal value depends on the dynamic equilibrium of consumption-investment ratio and investment growth rate. The growth rate of investment is the key factor that affects the changing trend of investment output efficiency, while the suppression of consumption weakened the contribution of investment-driven to economic growth. According to the provincial panel data from 1992 to 2007, 84% of the provinces in the past five years have an annual consumption rate below the optimal consumption rate, and the consumption rate shows a gradual downward trend. Therefore, the structural optimization of consumption and investment helps to improve the efficiency of investment and output.