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基于ARDL-ECM模型,文章以1990~2011年的中美林产品贸易数据,从汇率水平和汇率波动水平两个维度实证考察人民币汇率变动对中美林产品贸易的影响。结果表明,人民币升值在短期和长期内均对中美林产品贸易平衡有负面影响,但并不存在明显的反J曲线效应,而汇率变动性风险的影响并不显著,这一研究结果值得政策制定部门对我国林产品贸易尤其是进口贸易的刚性需求重点关注,并慎重考虑林产品贸易战略的长远规划。
Based on the ARDL-ECM model, this paper empirically examines the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-American forest products trade from the perspective of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility based on the Sino-US forest products trade data from 1990 to 2011. The results show that RMB appreciation has a negative impact on Sino-US forest product trade balance both in the short and long term, but there is no obvious anti-J curve effect and the effect of exchange rate risk change is not significant. The result of this study is worthy of policy The development departments focus on the rigid demand of China’s forest products trade, especially import trade, and carefully consider the long-term planning of the forest products trade strategy.