自1985年放开肉类市场以来,我国生猪市场开始呈现周期性波动。特别是近10多年来,生猪市场价格及生猪养殖效益周期性波动更为明显,已经历了三个完整的波动周期,目前正处在第四个周期的高价阶段。生猪生产的波动现象各国都有,但像我国这样的大幅振荡是少见的。生猪周期波动使生猪生产者、猪肉加工和流通企业面临着无法回避的风险, Since liberalizing the meat market in 1985, China’s pig market has begun to show cyclical fluctuations. Especially in the past 10 years, the market price of pigs and the periodic fluctuations in the efficiency of pig breeding have become more obvious. They have undergone three complete cycles of volatility and are now in the high price stage of the fourth cycle. Volatility in the production of pigs is common to all countries, but large oscillations such as ours are rare. Volatility in the pig cycle exposes pig producers, pork processing and distribution companies to risks that can not be avoided,