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汇改后,我国对外开放规模进一步扩大,对国际贸易与通货膨胀关系问题的研究越来越重要。本文采用理论与实证分析结合的方法研究了这一问题。理论部分从物价传导与货币传导两个方面分析了国际贸易对通货膨胀的影响。实证部分利用VAR模型对我国汇改后国际贸易与通货膨胀的关系进行了定量分析。研究发现进口价格指数与人民币实际汇率短期对通货膨胀影响有限,但汇率对通货膨胀的影响效应呈长期增加趋势,外汇储备余额影响较小。最后根据研究结论提出了相应的政策建议。
After the reform, the scale of China’s opening up further expanded and the study on the relationship between international trade and inflation became more and more important. In this paper, a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis of this problem. The theoretical part analyzes the impact of international trade on inflation from two aspects: price transmission and currency transmission. The empirical part makes use of the VAR model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between international trade and inflation after China’s reform. The study finds that the short-term effect of the import price index and RMB real exchange rate on inflation has a limited impact, but the effect of exchange rate on inflation shows a long-term increase trend and the impact of foreign exchange reserve balance is small. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.