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本文用增长率直接法、增长率趋势法分析了中国服务贸易的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动,并结合GDP长波采用协整分析方法研究了中国服务贸易的长波特征。研究结果表明,1982年以来的中国服务贸易经历了8次短周期波动、3次中周期波动 (其中目前的第3次中周期波动具有适度高位平滑的特征)、2次中长周期波动(目前正处于第2次中长周期波动的扩张期),服务贸易长波与GDP长波具有基本相同的特征。
In this paper, we analyze the short-period, medium-period and mid-long period fluctuations of China’s service trade by using the direct growth rate method and the growth rate trend method, and use the co-integration analysis method of GDP long-wave to study the long-wave characteristics of China’s service trade. The results show that since 1982, China’s service trade has experienced 8 short-cycle fluctuations, 3 medium-cycle fluctuations (the current 3-period medium-cycle fluctuations have moderately high smoothing characteristics), 2 medium-long cycle fluctuations Is in the middle of the second cycle of medium and long-term fluctuations), the long wave of service trade and GDP long wave has basically the same characteristics.