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为提高航空维修风险评估的有效性,引入多元联系数集对分析理论,将评估系统中的确定与不确定因素作为一个整体进行处理。在考虑专家权重的基础上,运用不确定层次分析法确定各评估指标的权重区间,并通过三元联系数的联系度表达式将权重区间转化为权重精确值。对三元联系数的不确定项进行拓展得到五元联系数表达式,以此为基础建立风险的同异反评估模型。根据由该模型计算出的集对势结果对系统风险态势进行评判,并利用各阶偏联系数对风险发展趋势进行分析,实现静态和动态评估的有效结合。以某航空公司维修基地为实例,计算和分析结果表明了该方法在系统风险评估及趋势分析中的可行性与有效性。
In order to improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of aviation maintenance, the theory of multivariate connection number set analysis is introduced to deal with the determinations and uncertainties in the assessment system as a whole. On the basis of considering the weight of experts, the uncertainty interval of each evaluation index is determined by the indefinite analytic hierarchy process, and the weighted interval is transformed into the exact weight by the connection degree expression of the ternary connection number. Expansion of the uncertainty of the ternary connection number to get the expression of the five-element connection number, on the basis of which, establishes the same-opposite-inverse evaluation model of risk. According to the results of the set-up potential calculated by this model, the system risk situation is judged, and the partial risk factors are used to analyze the trend of risk development so as to achieve the effective combination of static and dynamic assessment. Taking an airline maintenance base as an example, the calculation and analysis results show that the method is feasible and effective in system risk assessment and trend analysis.