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京沈铁路客运专线是《中长期铁路网规划(2008年调整)》“四纵四横”客运专线网的重要组成部分。由于大规模铁路客运专线的开工建设,未来北京至沈阳间将形成三条铁路运输通路,通道能力出现一定的富余,因此该项目的建设时机引起社会关各方高度注度。本文结合客运专线网规划,对进出关三条铁路通路运量预测及分配进行了深入的研究,从能力适应性和提高投资效益角度,提出京沈客运专线的建设时机具备可适当推迟的条件,建议可研阶段应重点研究建设时机,慎重决策,对国家决策部门具有重要的参考价值。
Beijing-Shenyang Railway Passenger Dedicated Line is an important part of the “long-term railway network planning (2008 adjustment)” “four vertical and four horizontal” passenger dedicated network. Due to the construction of large-scale railway passenger dedicated line, in the future, three railway transportation routes will be formed between Beijing and Shenyang, and some allowances will emerge in the channel capacity. Therefore, the construction timing of this project has caused great attention from all sectors of society. Based on the planning of Passenger Dedicated Line, this paper conducts an in-depth study on the traffic volume forecasting and distribution of the three railways entering and exiting the railway. From the perspective of adaptability and investment efficiency, it is proposed that the construction time of the Beijing-Shenyang Passenger Dedicated Line should be appropriately postponed, The feasibility study stage should focus on the construction of timing, prudent decision-making, the national decision-making department has an important reference value.