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根据1985~2011a新疆发生的Ms≥4地震数据,运用回归分析,对新疆发生的Ms≥4地震时空变化进行分析。结果显示:1)1985~2011a新疆Ms≥4地震发生1006次,总体上各震级地震呈现略有增长趋势,至2008年达高值为99次,活动周期约11~12a。地震活动3和8月较活跃,7和11月较平静,活动周期约5~6个月。一日之内地方时间5-6和17-18时出现峰值、1-2和11-13时出现谷值,活动主周期约9h、次周期约2h。2)近27a来全疆各地州市Ms≥4地震发生921次,其中4.0≤Ms≤7.0地震发生最多的是喀什为248次;Ms≥7.1地震发生最多的是和田为2次;克拉玛依4.0≤Ms≤5.0地震仅发生1次,奎屯没有发生。Ms≥4地震相对集中阿尔金、西昆仑、天山和阿勒泰4条地震带,其中Ms≥4各震级地震发生最多的是西昆仑地震带为497次,发生最少的是阿勒泰地震带为28次。3)近27a来Ms≥4.0地震发生的经纬度显著迁移,4.0≤Ms≤5.0地震发生的纬度每10a往北约迁移0.284°、经度每10a往东约迁移0.266°;5.1≤Ms≤6.0地震发生的纬度每10a往南约迁移0.225°、经度往西约迁移1.262°;6.1≤Ms≤7.0地震发生的纬度每10a往南约迁移0.057°、经度往西约迁移0.938°。
According to Ms ≥ 4 seismic data from 1985 to 2011a in Xinjiang, regression analysis was used to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of Ms ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Xinjiang. The results show that: 1) The MS ≥ 4 earthquakes in Xinjiang from 1985 to 2011a occurred 1006 times. Generally speaking, earthquakes of all magnitudes show a slight upward trend. By 2008, the earthquakes reached a maximum of 99 times with an active period of 11 to 12a. Earthquake activities in August and August more active, 7 and November more calm, the activity cycle of about 5 to 6 months. Peaks occur at 5-6 and 17-18 local times within a day, while troughs occur at 1-2 and 11-13. The active main period is about 9 hours and the next period is about 2 hours. 2) In the past 27 years, there were 921 earthquake occurrences of Ms≥4 in all prefectures in Xinjiang, of which 248 occurred in Kashgar with the largest magnitude of 4.0≤Ms≤7.0 earthquakes; 2 occurred in Wada with the largest number of Ms≥7.1 earthquakes; 4.0≤ Ms ≤ 5.0 earthquake occurred only once, Kuitun did not happen. The Ms ≥ 4 earthquakes are relatively concentrated in four seismic belts such as Altyn Tagh, Western Kunlun, Tianshan and Aletai, of which 497 are occurred in the western Kunlun earthquake zone and 28 are the least occurred in the Ms ≥ 4 earthquakes. 3) Significant latitude and longitude migration of Ms≥4.0 occurred in the past 27 years, and the latitude of 4.0≤Ms≤5.0 occurred every 0. 2 ° northward from the NATO and 0.266 ° longitude from east to west of 10a; 5.1≤Ms≤6.0 The latitude shifts from south to east about 0.225 ° every ten years and from longitude to west about 1.262 °. The earthquakes with 6.1≤Ms≤7.0 displace 0.057 ° every ten days and 0.938 ° longitude westward.