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本文用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对1999~2015年中国农村居民人均国内旅游消费与人均GDP进行检验。结果表明二者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,滞后1期,存在Log RT到Log RGDP双向的因果关系,滞后2期,在10%显著性水平上存在Log RGDP到Log RT的单向格兰杰因果关系。基于上述检验,本文提出了扩大中国农村居民国内旅游消费的对策建议。
In this paper, the co-integration test and Granger causality test were used to test the per-capita domestic tourism consumption and GDP per capita of Chinese rural residents from 1999 to 2015. The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium between the two. The Granger causality test showed that there was a two-way causal relationship between Log RT and Log RGDP in lag phase 1, lagging for two periods and a one-way Granger causality between Log RGDP and Log RT at 10% significance level. Based on the above test, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for expanding the domestic tourism consumption of Chinese rural residents.