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2009年7月的天然橡胶市场略出意料,在股市亢奋和原油价格反弹及国内汽车销售强劲且新政出台等刺激下呈现快速向上突破的行情。8月市场总体环境因素仍然偏多,但市场分歧将逐渐增大。首先国内股市面临回调压力,从基本面分析,天然橡胶的季节性供应压力还没有完全释放,美国对中国出口轮胎高关税的问题也有待解决。综合来看,8月的天然橡胶市场走势难现单边上扬格局,震荡会有所加剧,但重心仍有望上移,总体波动区间在1.7万~2万元之间。
The natural rubber market in July 2009 was a little bit unexpected. In the stock market surging and crude oil prices rebounding and the strong sales of domestic automobiles and the introduction of the New Deal, the market showed a rapid upward trend. In August, the overall environmental factor in the market is still too much, but the market disagreement will gradually increase. First of all, the domestic stock market is facing pressure from the callback. From a fundamental analysis, the seasonal supply pressure of natural rubber has not been fully released. The issue of the U.S. high tariff on the export of tires to China has yet to be solved. Taken together, the natural rubber market in August is difficult to unilaterally move upward trend, the shock will be intensified, but the center of gravity is still expected to move up, the overall range of fluctuations in the 17,000 to 20,000 yuan.