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中国在宋代(960—1279年)经历了前所未有的经济增长。据麦迪森(Maddison)的估计,当时之人均GDP从450元增加到600元(以1990年国际美元计)。截然相反的是,在后来的明清两代(1368—1911年),中国的人均GDP几乎保持于600元不变。这就引发了中国经济史上一个有趣的问题——“为什么宋代中国的早期工业革命到了明清时期会变成停滞的农业经济?”我的观点是,中国的省制度在1370年代发生了变化,使得工商活动之产权执行不力,从而导致上述长期经济绩效的变迁。
China experienced unprecedented economic growth in the Song Dynasty (960-1279). According to Maddison’s estimates, per capita GDP increased from 450 yuan to 600 yuan (in 1990 international dollars). In sharp contrast, in the subsequent Ming and Qing dynasties (1368-1911), China’s per capita GDP remained almost unchanged at 600 yuan. This raises an interesting issue in the history of China’s economy - “Why did the early Industrial Revolution in Song China turn into a stagnant agricultural economy in the Ming and Qing Dynasties?” My point is that the provincial system in China took place in the 1370s Change, making the implementation of business activities, property rights ineffective, leading to the long-term changes in economic performance.