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税制建设二、以1999年度为例,对其分月的税收收入所作的预测第一步计算税收月分布经验曲线。首先用1996年、1997年、1998年3年各月税收的平均数求出经验分布曲线,其目的在于消除个别月税收收入变化的超常波动。将计算出的各月平均数除以合计数求出各月的分布系数,再将1998年的总收入乘以分布系数,对1998年的总收入按月进行重新分配,形成1998年的经验分布曲线(计算结果见表1)。第二步计算已实现税收(1—7月)增长的权重:α=n-∑ni=1ei(y)n=(12-5)/12=0.5833第三步计算已实现税收(1—7月)的增长比率:δt=∑7i=1αi(y)∑7i=1αi(y-1)=58644682=1.25第四步计算综合增长系数。1999年上半年全国GDP增长7.6%,1—7月份全国工业增加值比上年同期增长9.4%。综合各项因素,保守估计,下半年的经济增长预期分高中低3种情况,δe分别为1.08、1.075和1.07。实际税收增长和预期经济增长加权后,综合增长系数δ分别为:δ高=(1-0.5833)×1.08+0.5833×1.25=0.45+0.7291=1.1791δ中=(1-0.5833)×1.075+0.5833×1.25=0.448+0.7291=1.1771δ低=(1-0.5833)×1.07+0.5833×1.25=0.4459+0.7291=1.175由于剩余月份的减少,经济增长成分的权重降低,经济增长对综合增长系数的影响不是很大。第五步计算1999年未实现(8—12月)
Second, the tax system, for example, in 1999, for its monthly tax revenue forecast made the first step to calculate the monthly tax distribution experience curve. First, the empirical distribution curve is derived from the average tax revenue of each of the three years of 1996, 1997 and 1998. The purpose is to eliminate the extraordinary fluctuation of the tax revenue income in a few months. Divide the calculated monthly average by the total to find the distribution coefficient for each month, and then multiply the total income in 1998 by the distribution coefficient to re-distribute the total income of 1998 on a monthly basis to form the 1998 empirical distribution Curve (calculation results in Table 1). Step 2 Calculate the weight of the tax increase (January-July) that has been achieved: α = n-Σni = 1ei (y) n = (12-5) /12=0.5833 Step 3 Calculate the tax Month) growth rate: δt = Σ7i = 1αi (y) Σ7i = 1αi (y-1) = 58644682 = 1.25 The fourth step to calculate the coefficient of comprehensive growth. In the first half of 1999, the national GDP increased by 7.6%. From January to July, the national industrial added value increased by 9.4% over the same period of last year. Based on various factors and conservative estimates, the expected economic growth in the second half of the year is divided into high, medium and low 3 cases with δe of 1.08, 1.075 and 1.07 respectively. After the actual tax growth and expected economic growth are weighted, the comprehensive growth coefficients δ are: δhigh = (1-0.5833) × 1.08 + 0.5833 × 1.25 = 0.45 + 0.7291 = 1.1791 δ = (1-0.5833) × 1.075 + 0.5833 × 1.25 = 0.448 + 0.7291 = 1.1771 δ low = (1-0.5833) × 1.07 + 0.5833 × 1.25 = 0.4459 + 0.7291 = 1.175 Due to the decrease of the remaining months, the weight of the economic growth component is reduced and the impact of economic growth on the comprehensive growth coefficient is not very good Big. The fifth step is not implemented in 1999 (August-December)