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On September 15， 2008， Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection， a sign of the escalation of the U.S. subprime crisis toward a global financial crisis. Now， the world economy is stepping out of crisis and marching toward recovery. Five years after the crisis roiled the world， in what ways has the global economy changed？
Five years ago， the global economic growth rate stood at 2.81 percent， while it will be 3.1 percent this year （all data for 2013 are predicted numbers）. The growth rate for developed economies was 0.07 percent in 2008 and will be 1.2 percent in 2013， and the growth for emerging economies was 6.09 percent in 2008 and with a prediction of 5 percent for 2013.
Five years ago， the yields for 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States， Europe and Japan were 3.72 percent， 4.19 percent and 1.54 percent， respectively， while the number declines to the current 2.91 percent， 2.05 percent and 0.73 percent， respectively. In 2008， 80 out of the top 100 banks selected by The Banker were from developed countries and only 20 from emerging economies. Five years later， 72 are from developed countries and 28 are from emerging economies. The United States had 13 banks on the 2008 list， Germany had nine and France， six， while the United States now has 16， and both Germany and France have seen their numbers drop to five a piece.
The results are not what many had imagined. More importantly， we can learn from the crisis.
First， the global economy is constantly adjusting and re-adjusting. During the past five years， emerging markets enjoyed blistering growth while developed countries were mired in trouble. The International Monetary Fund estimated the total GDP of emerging economies will approach or even outpace that of developed countries in 2013. But now， developed countries are speeding up and emerging markets are slowing down. Economic development itself is a circle， in which developed countries and emerging markets take turns to develop and to take a breath amid economic slowdowns. Only in this way can the global economy have a steady stream of growth momentum. Therefore， the current slowdown in economic growth in developing countries is not a crisis. Instead， it’s a periodical need for the world economy to develop in a sustainable fashion and to improve its structures for growth. China’s choice to slow down is a rational one.
Second， a crisis is a process of power reshuffling. The United States has somehow benefited from the crisis because it now has more growth momentum and more powerful banks than before， risks have been phased out of the economy and a better economic structure has taken hold. Europe is the biggest loser in the crisis， with the declining competitiveness of its banks and the plummeting status of the euro. Emerging markets edged down after peaking during the crisis. They have many flaws in the structure of their economy and their financial markets. Great development gaps exist among emerging markets. Marginalized emerging economies， such as India and Indonesia， are on the verge of breakdown.
Finally， the global financial market is on the rise in general. But some emerging markets have accumulated asset bubbles in the process. An outburst of asset bubbles in some emerging economies has caused regional financial turbulence.
Global economic recovery is a roundabout and turbulent process full of uncertainties. Therefore， we should be extremely careful. The Lehman Brothers incident indicates that a new one may be approaching us.
Five years ago， the global economic growth rate stood at 2.81 percent， while it will be 3.1 percent this year （all data for 2013 are predicted numbers）. The growth rate for developed economies was 0.07 percent in 2008 and will be 1.2 percent in 2013， and the growth for emerging economies was 6.09 percent in 2008 and with a prediction of 5 percent for 2013.
Five years ago， the yields for 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States， Europe and Japan were 3.72 percent， 4.19 percent and 1.54 percent， respectively， while the number declines to the current 2.91 percent， 2.05 percent and 0.73 percent， respectively. In 2008， 80 out of the top 100 banks selected by The Banker were from developed countries and only 20 from emerging economies. Five years later， 72 are from developed countries and 28 are from emerging economies. The United States had 13 banks on the 2008 list， Germany had nine and France， six， while the United States now has 16， and both Germany and France have seen their numbers drop to five a piece.
The results are not what many had imagined. More importantly， we can learn from the crisis.
First， the global economy is constantly adjusting and re-adjusting. During the past five years， emerging markets enjoyed blistering growth while developed countries were mired in trouble. The International Monetary Fund estimated the total GDP of emerging economies will approach or even outpace that of developed countries in 2013. But now， developed countries are speeding up and emerging markets are slowing down. Economic development itself is a circle， in which developed countries and emerging markets take turns to develop and to take a breath amid economic slowdowns. Only in this way can the global economy have a steady stream of growth momentum. Therefore， the current slowdown in economic growth in developing countries is not a crisis. Instead， it’s a periodical need for the world economy to develop in a sustainable fashion and to improve its structures for growth. China’s choice to slow down is a rational one.
Second， a crisis is a process of power reshuffling. The United States has somehow benefited from the crisis because it now has more growth momentum and more powerful banks than before， risks have been phased out of the economy and a better economic structure has taken hold. Europe is the biggest loser in the crisis， with the declining competitiveness of its banks and the plummeting status of the euro. Emerging markets edged down after peaking during the crisis. They have many flaws in the structure of their economy and their financial markets. Great development gaps exist among emerging markets. Marginalized emerging economies， such as India and Indonesia， are on the verge of breakdown.
Finally， the global financial market is on the rise in general. But some emerging markets have accumulated asset bubbles in the process. An outburst of asset bubbles in some emerging economies has caused regional financial turbulence.
Global economic recovery is a roundabout and turbulent process full of uncertainties. Therefore， we should be extremely careful. The Lehman Brothers incident indicates that a new one may be approaching us.