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在文献[1]中,吴荣用多个“平稳自回归序列”模型,对中国东部及近海地区(华北、华东、华南等地及附近海域)M_s≥5 1/2地震的发震时间、地区(判定地震发生在北纬30°以南或以北)给出了经验性预报公式。1977年以后,中国东部地区,已经从1966—1976年的地震活动高潮期转入相对的平静期,地震活动也以中强地震活动为主,一般表现为陆续地、成丛地发生5—6级地震,并以某种程度的规律性沿一定方向迁移。在中国东部地区的震情监视、会商和预报工作中,作者对文献[1]的预报公式,进行了检验,并对发震时间及误差项做了一些修改。修改的出发点是为了使预报与平静期地震活动的特点相适应。从效果上看,这个模型的基本思想是可取的,对发震时间及误差项的修改也是有益的。下面做一个简要介绍。
In [1], Wu Rong used multiple “stationary autoregressive sequence” models to study the seismogenic time of M_s≥5 1/2 earthquakes in the eastern and offshore regions of China (North China, East China, South China and other nearby sea areas) The area (where the earthquake was determined to be located south or north of latitude 30 °) gives an empirical prediction formula. After 1977, the eastern part of China has shifted from the climax of the seismic activity from 1966 to 1976 to a relative calm period. The seismic activity is also dominated by the moderately strong earthquakes. Generally, the earthquakes occur 5-6 Earthquakes and migrate in a certain direction with a certain degree of regularity. In the earthquake monitoring, consultation and forecasting in the eastern part of China, the author tested the prediction formula in [1] and made some modifications to the time and error term of the earthquake. The starting point of the modification is to adapt the forecast to the characteristics of seismic activity in calm period. From the effect point of view, the basic idea of this model is desirable, and it is also beneficial to modify the occurrence time and error term. Below to make a brief introduction.