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为精确了解古建筑火灾的风险情况,通过统计我国近65年来的165例古建筑火灾案例,分析古建筑火灾的事故特征,在此基础上,建立事故树模型。采用统计、专家评分的方法获取基本事件的发生概率,然后计算出基本事件的临界重要度系数进行比较,发现古建筑火灾的发生与季节、省份存在关系,古建筑火灾的防治应该从原因事件的预防、火灾发生后的扑救、加强监管及消防投入等方面着手,对于临界重要度系数大的基本事件应该着重管理。事故树定量研究可以为古建筑火灾的防治提供更加科学合理的建议。
In order to accurately understand the risk of ancient building fires, by analyzing 165 cases of ancient building fires in recent 65 years in our country, the accident features of ancient buildings were analyzed. On this basis, an accident tree model was established. The probability of occurrence of basic events was obtained by statistical and expert scoring methods. Then, the critical importance coefficients of basic events were calculated and compared. It was found that the occurrence of ancient buildings ’fire was related to the seasons and provinces. The prevention and treatment of ancient buildings’ Prevention, fire fighting after the fire, strengthen supervision and investment in fire prevention and other aspects, the critical importance of large basic events should focus on management. The quantitative study of accident tree can provide more scientific and reasonable advice for the prevention and treatment of ancient buildings and fires.