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随着现代社会的高速发展，预测手段已成为不可缺少的重要工具之一，它为整个国民经济的发展提供着科学的决策性的信息。我国从80年代开始在各个领域中进行了广泛的预测预报。医疗卫生方面主要表现在人口、医疗规模、疾病的预测等。关于癌症死亡人数的预测，目前国内仅昆明等地有报告。本文在学习国内预报经验的基础上，根据重庆市中区1973～1985年肺癌和恶性肿瘤死亡率，对其死亡人数作出2000年预测。
With the rapid development of modern society, the means of forecasting has become an indispensable and important tool. It provides scientific and decision-making information for the development of the entire national economy. Since the 1980s, China has carried out a wide range of forecasts and forecasts in various fields. Mainly in the medical and health aspects of population, medical scale, disease prediction. About the prediction of the number of cancer deaths, at present only Kunming and other places have reported. Based on the experience of domestic forecasting, this paper predicts the number of deaths of lung cancer and malignant tumor from the mortality rate of lung cancer and malignant tumor in Central District of Chongqing from 1973 to 1985.