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当前国内要素价格改革呼声很高,其中能源价格改革更为迫切。要素价格改革对我国宏观经济影响如何?其影响程度有多深?本文利用中国CGE模型——MCHUGE模型,研究提高能源价格对我国经济发展的影响。研究表明,提高能源价格在短期和长期均能显著降低中国能源强度,其原因是能源价格的提高优化了中国经济产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在GDP中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。但是能源价格提高对宏观经济带来了较大的负面影响,其导致的出口下降和投资需求下降分别是短期和长期GDP下降的主要原因。
At present, the reform of domestic factor prices is very loud, in which energy price reform is more urgent. How is the impact of factor price reform on China’s macro-economy? How deep is it affected? In this paper, we use the Chinese CGE model-MCHUGE model to study the impact of raising energy prices on China’s economic development. Research shows that raising energy prices can significantly reduce China’s energy intensity in the short and long term because the increase of energy prices optimizes the structure of China’s economy and economy. The secondary industry, especially heavy industry, decreases its share in GDP and reduces the overall Energy consumption. However, higher energy prices have a greater negative impact on the macroeconomy. The decline in exports and the drop in investment demand are the main reasons for the short-term and long-term GDP declines, respectively.