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根据灰色系统理论中的数列预测理论 ,针对高速公路沥青路面使用性能中的 3项基本指标建立了灰色预测模型 ,并采用绝对关联度分析模型的预测精度。最后根据预测模型对江苏某高速公路使用性能的 3项检测指标进行了预测 ,并根据预测结果与路面实际检测数据的对比 ,分析模型预测结果的合理性以及 3项基本指标的发展情况 ,并分析和讨论所用灰色预测模型的特点及其在路面使用性能预测的应用情况。
According to the theory of sequence prediction in gray system theory, a gray prediction model is established for three basic indexes of expressway asphalt pavement performance, and the absolute correlation degree is used to analyze the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, according to the forecasting model, we forecast three indicators of the service performance of a highway in Jiangsu Province. Based on the comparison between the predicted result and the actual test data, the rationality of the model predictions and the development of the three basic indicators are analyzed and analyzed And discusses the characteristics of the gray prediction model used and its application in the prediction of road surface performance.