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分析了电力行业煤炭需求系统复杂结构特征及动态反馈关系,建立了电力行业煤炭需求系统动力学模型并进行了仿真模拟,研究表明:电力行业仍将是拉动煤炭需求增长的主要因素,电力煤炭需求影响因素复杂,经济发展速度、节能技术进步以及政策调节等发挥了重要的影响作用。从政策层面上,应通过调整产业结构、降低投资率、优化投资结构抑制电煤过度需求;统一规划煤炭和电力的发展;促进节能管理,加大技术进步对节能降耗的贡献等。
The paper analyzes the complex structure characteristics and dynamic feedback relationship of coal demand system in power industry, establishes the system dynamics model of coal demand in power industry and simulates the simulation. The results show that the power industry will continue to be the main factor driving the coal demand growth. Electricity coal demand The influencing factors are complex, the speed of economic development, the progress of energy-saving technologies and the adjustment of policies play an important role. From the policy level, we should adjust the industrial structure, reduce the investment rate, optimize the investment structure to curb the excessive demand for coal; unified planning for the development of coal and electricity; promote energy-saving management, increase the contribution of technological progress to energy saving.