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游客规模预测是地质公园规划中的重要组成部分之一,它既是公园效益分析、基础设施建设的依据,也是公园发展过程中游客容量控制的重要参考。本文主要阐述地质公园规划中游客规模预测的一般思路与方法,并应用spss软件中的指数曲线模型对思南乌江喀斯特国家地质公园游客规模预测进行修正,求得较精确、合理的预测结果,对同类地质公园的游客规模预测具有很大的借鉴意义。
Prediction of tourist size is one of the most important parts in the planning of geoparks. It is not only the basis for the analysis of park benefits and infrastructure construction, but also an important reference for the control of tourist capacity during the development of parks. This paper mainly expounds the general ideas and methods of tourists’ size prediction in geopark planning, and uses the exponential curve model in spss software to revise the tourist scale forecast of the Sianjiang Wujiang Karst National Geopark to obtain the more accurate and reasonable forecast results. It is of great reference to predict the tourist size of similar geological parks.