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本文利用KMV模型在债务置换年度内,对不同债务置换规模所引致的违约概率变动进行测度。采用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)在对参数进行校准和估计的基础上,仿真了赤字冲击对各宏观经济变量的影响,继而对未来债务置换期间的可偿债收入进行预测,提高了预测的准确性。对可偿债财力的测算,分别考虑了一般性预算收入与政府性基金收入在偿还地方政府债务过程中的不同作用,使测算结果更为合理。测算结果显示,在未来年度内至少应置换当年到期债务的40%,否则理论上仍然存在极大的债务风险。
In this paper, we use the KMV model to measure the probability of default caused by different scale of debt replacement during the year of debt replacement. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is used to simulate the impact of deficit impact on various macroeconomic variables based on the calibration and estimation of the parameters, and then to predict the debt-liability income during the future debt replacement, accuracy. The calculation of the solvency of financial assets takes into account the different roles of the general budget revenue and the revenue of the government funds in repaying the debts of the local government respectively so as to make the calculation results more reasonable. The calculation shows that at least 40% of the debt due in the current year should be replaced in the future, otherwise, there is still theoretically great debt risk.