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持续上涨的商品房价格现已成为全社会关注的一个焦点。本文定性分析了影响房价的若干市场供需因素和政策因素,并利用天津市1995￣2005年间的样本数据建立了商品住宅价格影响因素的计量经济模型。模型结果显示,城镇居民收入水平、存款利率和滞后一期固定资产投资价格是影响天津市商品住宅价格的主要因素。基于此,本文认为近几年房价的上涨有一定的必然性和合理性,但政府仍可以通过上调利率、调整土地供应政策和调控房地产开发成本等来稳定房价。
Rising housing prices have now become a focus of attention of the whole society. This paper qualitatively analyzes the supply and demand factors and policy factors in a number of markets that affect housing prices, and uses the sample data from 1995 to 2005 in Tianjin to establish a econometric model of the factors affecting commodity housing prices. The results of the model show that the income level of urban residents, deposit interest rates and lagged fixed-asset investment prices are the main factors affecting the price of commercial housing in Tianjin. Based on this, this paper argues that the rising of housing prices in recent years has certain inevitability and rationality, but the government can still stabilize housing prices by raising interest rates, adjusting land supply policies and regulating real estate development costs.