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科学的能源系统规划有利于缓解现阶段的能源供需矛盾,然而,能源系统由多个复杂的子系统构成,包含多种不确定性,且子系统之间也存在着复杂的互动关系。综合考虑能源、经济、环境等要素,基于不确定优化方法,包括区间规划,两阶段随机规划以及机会约束规划方法,构建能源系统规划模型。此外,基于析因分析方法,对模型优化结果进行敏感性分析,选取污染排放的主要影响因子,揭示其影响效应及潜在的互动关系。模型可有效处理复杂条件下污染物排放,实现系统资源优化配置,促进能源结构调整。结果表明,在满足系统运行和能源需求的基础上,可有效降低系统成本,促进污染减排,实现能源发展与环境保护的共赢。
Scientific energy system planning is conducive to alleviating the contradiction between energy supply and demand at this stage. However, the energy system is composed of a number of complex subsystems, including multiple uncertainties, and there are complex interactions between subsystems. Comprehensive consideration of energy, economic, and environmental factors, based on uncertain optimization methods, including interval planning, two-stage stochastic programming, and chance constrained planning methods, build energy system planning models. In addition, based on the factorial analysis method, the sensitivity analysis of the model optimization results was conducted, and the main influencing factors of pollution emissions were selected to reveal their impact effects and potential interactions. The model can effectively deal with pollutant emissions under complex conditions, achieve optimal allocation of system resources, and promote energy structure adjustment. The results show that on the basis of meeting system operation and energy requirements, the system cost can be effectively reduced, pollution reduction can be promoted, and a win-win situation between energy development and environmental protection can be achieved.