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目的分析手足口病在精细时空尺度的交互作用及其特点,为开展精准防控提供依据。方法根据手足口病历年发病数据,通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统抽取广州市越秀区2014年手足口病资料,通过统计年鉴收集人口资料,描述手足口病的三间分布,并用Knox方法分析其在精细时空尺度的交互作用。结果 2014年越秀区共报告手足口病3 265例,存在时空交互作用,具有时空聚集性,在时间临界值为4 d、空间临界值为0.2 km时,时空聚集强度最大。女性时空聚集强度大于男性;0~2岁组在第1、第4~7天,3~6岁组在第1、第4~5、第9~11天,≥7岁组在第2、第7~8天分别出现了时空聚集高峰;散居儿童主要在0.4 km范围内出现较强时空聚集强度,学生在0.3~0.9 km范围内出现较强时空聚集强度。在4 d、0.2 km的时空范围内,手足口病发病风险呈现增加趋势。结论手足口病在短时间和短距离内聚集性较强,女性、3~6岁儿童、托幼儿童是聚集性病例发生的高危人群,根据手足口病时空分布特征做好防控,有助于防止聚集性病例的发生。
Objective To analyze the interaction and characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease at the fine temporal and spatial scales and provide the basis for precise prevention and control. Methods According to the incidence data of HFMD in 2007, the data of HFMD in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou City were drawn from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Population distribution data were collected from the Statistical Yearbook to describe the three distributions of HFMD. Knox method was used to analyze the prevalence of HFMD. Interaction of fine spatio-temporal scales. Results A total of 3 265 hand-foot-mouth disease cases were reported in Yuexiu district in 2014, which showed the spatiotemporal aggregation with spatiotemporal aggregation. When the time critical value was 4 d and the spatial critical value was 0.2 km, the spatial-temporal aggregation intensity was the largest. The intensity of spatial-temporal clustering in females was greater than that in males; in groups 0 to 2 years old, in groups 1, 4 to 7, and 3 to 6 years old, there was no significant difference between groups 1, 4 to 5, 9 to 11, The spatiotemporal aggregation peak appeared on the 7th to 8th days respectively. The strong spatiotemporal aggregation intensity of the scattered children appeared in the range of 0.4 km and the spatiotemporal aggregation intensity of the students in the range of 0.3 to 0.9 km. In the 4 days and 0.2 km space-time range, the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease showed an increasing trend. Conclusion HFMD accumulates strongly in short time and short distance. Female, 3-6 year-old children and nursery children are the high-risk group of cluster cases. According to the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HFMD, it is helpful To prevent the occurrence of aggregation cases.